Post by beauty on Mar 4, 2012 5:09:20 GMT -5
German scientists have developed computer models predict the spread of infectious diseases
According to Xinhua: German scientists have recently developed a computer model to predict the global spread of infectious diseases, which is characterized by the combination of the local infection dynamics and simulation of global civil aviation transportation network.
Germany's Max Planck Society has said a press release, this model jointly developed by the Göttingen Max Planck Institute for Fluid Research Institute and the University of Göttingen, it can not only describe the global spread of infectious diseases, and the use of computer simulation technology, can also predict development of the epidemic, especially the prediction may have been particularly threatened areas.
The researchers launched for the propagation behavior of pathogens. They first developed a dynamic model of epidemic infection by air travel between the two different transport hub, and transmission to other passengers. In the model, the researchers counted more than 2 million times a week flights between 500 airports around the world, covering about 95 percent of the global civil aviation transportation. The geographical spread of infectious diseases through the analysis of the liquidity situation of the global air passenger forecasts.
In this way, researchers, London, New York and Frankfurt and other major aviation hub in a heavy responsibility in the process of the rapid spread of infectious diseases, In contrast, the pathogen first appeared locations has little to do. In addition, the spread of infectious diseases, the transport hub of the city's airport scale much smaller than the airport route dense extent.
The communique says that the model is a random differential equations, the dynamic description of the epidemic spread and infection. The model parameters and disease-related values, such as infected individuals, the average caused by secondary infection of quantity, the cure rate and mortality.
2003 SARS outbreaks, pathogens can quickly spread out around the world through modern aviation network. This new model during the global SARS outbreak last year about the experiment, the result is very consistent with the actual spread of the epidemic.
Previously, infectious diseases, mathematical standard model is a diffusion process to describe the epidemic spread of this diffusion process and the diffusion of molecules in the fluid and react chemically with other molecules is very similar.
The researchers believe the new model will help reduce damage and casualties in humans to deal with the new epidemic. Before the implementation of the vaccine and control measures in the computer model the effectiveness of various prevention strategies for testing and comparison. As the fast spread of the epidemic today the emergence of such predictions has great significance.
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According to Xinhua: German scientists have recently developed a computer model to predict the global spread of infectious diseases, which is characterized by the combination of the local infection dynamics and simulation of global civil aviation transportation network.
Germany's Max Planck Society has said a press release, this model jointly developed by the Göttingen Max Planck Institute for Fluid Research Institute and the University of Göttingen, it can not only describe the global spread of infectious diseases, and the use of computer simulation technology, can also predict development of the epidemic, especially the prediction may have been particularly threatened areas.
The researchers launched for the propagation behavior of pathogens. They first developed a dynamic model of epidemic infection by air travel between the two different transport hub, and transmission to other passengers. In the model, the researchers counted more than 2 million times a week flights between 500 airports around the world, covering about 95 percent of the global civil aviation transportation. The geographical spread of infectious diseases through the analysis of the liquidity situation of the global air passenger forecasts.
In this way, researchers, London, New York and Frankfurt and other major aviation hub in a heavy responsibility in the process of the rapid spread of infectious diseases, In contrast, the pathogen first appeared locations has little to do. In addition, the spread of infectious diseases, the transport hub of the city's airport scale much smaller than the airport route dense extent.
The communique says that the model is a random differential equations, the dynamic description of the epidemic spread and infection. The model parameters and disease-related values, such as infected individuals, the average caused by secondary infection of quantity, the cure rate and mortality.
2003 SARS outbreaks, pathogens can quickly spread out around the world through modern aviation network. This new model during the global SARS outbreak last year about the experiment, the result is very consistent with the actual spread of the epidemic.
Previously, infectious diseases, mathematical standard model is a diffusion process to describe the epidemic spread of this diffusion process and the diffusion of molecules in the fluid and react chemically with other molecules is very similar.
The researchers believe the new model will help reduce damage and casualties in humans to deal with the new epidemic. Before the implementation of the vaccine and control measures in the computer model the effectiveness of various prevention strategies for testing and comparison. As the fast spread of the epidemic today the emergence of such predictions has great significance.
www.perfume.com.tw/bags/